[ScarletPip]

Haven't been able to trade this week as I've been ill but it makes me think I should try this on a D1 timeframe and just check in from time to time. This is less physically/mentally demanding and could also be more profitable.

This would definitely require a loss rule, so I'm going to add another exit rule.

• Close the profitable trade if price retraces more than 50% from entry point. In other words, move to preserve at least 50% of a gain.
  
  Here is a chart showing speculative results of October and first part of November trading this method. Note the improved win rate. I will start this on a demo today.
  
  
  Here is a link to the D1 ruleset that I will be using.
  https://docs.google.com/document/d/13Bl ... sp=sharing

[ScarletPip]

Spec charts for GBPUSD and UDJPY using the daily timeframe.





All look worthwhile apart from the aggravating week-long loss in USDJPY.

[ScarletPip]

Here is a spec chart of the system using a particularly brutal ranging market in USDJPY around Feb. 2014. I still see more gold than red, so that's encouraging.

[Geko]

Looks like the spoilers aren't showing so here are the images.

Yep on Phpbb their's not a real wysiwyg editor, at the moment I am testing one which is not that good, I hope to find a better solution soon.

We have already the basic function

[Geko]

I hope you are feeling better and wish you the best, arh winter is coming

Great work done here, I am following your ideas with interest, I am not testing them at the moment as I am busy with the other stuff that I have posted in the forum.

For your signal candle, to enter the trade, what about using the break of the previous candle high/low as a filter (e.g: for a buy, break of previous candle high), being even more cautious a close above the high of the previous candle to confirm the trend...

Just an idea, I am not sure it would help, but hey that's why we are here, to help each other no

[ScarletPip]

Thank you. Yes I post everything here hoping that greater minds than my own (or even just different-thinking) will improve the system and we can all benefit. This is the open development principle and it has made great software systems, like Linux, Google Chrome, etc. so I see no reason why it cannot make great Forex systems that will allow small fish retail investors to succeed where most fail.

If I understand your suggestion it is similar to the 'Turtle trading rules' where a new high or low signals an entry point? I think it is a good variable, with historical precedent, and I am adding it to my future ideas. One thing I have noticed about the major Forex pairs, at least in recent months, is that they are less cyclical than they used to be. You could often count on a currency to move within a limited range on a longer (think W1) timescale and so if you had a serious loss it would 'fix' itself as long as you could withstand the floating drawdown. Now, with Brexit, and US dollar strength, and Euro uncertainty, a lot of currencies are moving one way and not coming back (yet). If you look at the Euro on the W1 chart, it has been in freefall since 2012. Before that it was ranging from about 2009-2012. The yen is making a recovery after falling out of its range in 2015. The pound, which was as stable as they get before 2013 has been mercilessly punished with no end in sight.

So, if you are trading a positional size system and you use a local high or low to enter, I think you would be very well served, especially if you opt to trade only in the direction of the main trend.

[ScarletPip]

I am also looking for suggestions about the position sizing for this system.

I wanted to see if it is possible to make profits in both directions no matter what the overall trend is doing, and it's not yet clear to me if this is worthwhile. One thing I think about is what Dr. Van Tharp says about trading systems. The entry is not usually much better than a random point of reference, and it is far less important than the exit criteria, which in turn is far less important than the position size rules. I have yet to read Tharp's definitive work on position sizing but it is on my to-do list. Right now I am trading 0.01 lot per 1k of balance. I am exiting 100% on a stop loss event and exiting 100% on a trend reversal signal. This system still needs to refine its position sizing theory, as it is very crude. This will have a greater effect on the system's future profitability than the entry or exit rules, although that seems counter-intuitive.

Once I can show that any version of this system is stable, and produces a reliable edge, I want to make a basic EA that can test some of these variables using some kind of tester, which should give a clue at least, about the best entry, exit and sizing rules.

[ScarletPip]

How did we do this week? Well, only two days were traded (using the daily plan) because of reasons, but so far so good.

Although it's not part of my trading plan, I took to bagging profits daily, at the close of NY session each day, if the trade was profitable and then re-entering immediately the next day according to the rules.

I really like how Blast allows me to see the trades and the pips they accumulated. I can clearly see for example that my carelessness cost me a few pips when I didn't re-enter the trade in a timely fashion on Friday.



And on Friday I closed the trade according to the rules and it nearly doubled just in the last couple of hours, costing me around 15pips. So now my rule says close in the last 10 minutes. Spreads may very high then but it looks like the trend continues right to the end of the day, maybe as a result of FOMO.



EURUSD picked the worst time to get uncertain about its direction, but we still got one good trade out of it.



We are holding onto two trades over the weekend, as there is a good chance they'll reverse and they did not hit the SL or close above/below the prior candles' openings.



Here's how the account looks so far. 1.4% over two days. We can live with it.

[ScarletPip]

Finally starting to feel better and I wanted to update the progress of the system so far.

I will post some charts later but it has been a rough period for a trend-following system. Apart from GBPUSD price has been ranging, and GBPSUD is not in a strong trend.

The Good

• This system is easy to trade on a daily timeframe. I only need to check it a few times a day at most. I could probably track more than 3 currencies.
• Despite a difficult ranging period the overall balance is still basically where we started. It is breaking even. That's what we want to see in any system. Can it hold steady during difficult times, without destroying the balance in a few days? The answer in this case appears to be yes. This is more important than being consistently profitable, because you can still have a system that makes profits 99% of the time, and then wipes out your account on the 1% of times when it isn't profitable.

The Bad

• The big trends I saw on my charts are either reversing or taking a break. That's boring. Especially on D1. This system is testing my limited patience.
• Currencies range more than they trend, probably 2:1 depending on who you believe.
• This system requires us to stay in the market even during tough times.
• We're still using dumb (static) position sizes with no regard to volatility.

So some of the ideas I'm considering are ways of avoiding ranging periods. Maybe we can look up to W1 and see when the trend is starting to weaken or reverse, and get out, and stay out until the signal is back on.
Maybe we can use trendlines to see when price has fallen out of its channel and avoid making new trades until the channel re-asserts itself with the trend?

Another thing I'm considering is that the default one or two bars reversal is inflexible and doesn't really fully describe what is happening. In some cases I can tell that price has a better than 50% chance of resuming the trend, but because one bar closed lower than the open of the previous according to the system I have to exit and enter the other direction.

Moving ahead I'm going to keep testing this system to see if it will ever go as massively profitable as it seems like it could be on my charts. I'm going to add some more currencies to try, especially EURJPY. It's easy to manage a large basket on D1.

I'm going to take all these loose ideas I've been kicking around, turn them into another strategy and post it here when it's half-baked. Thanks for reading, and feel free to comment if you have any suggestions/questions.

[ScarletPip]

I haven't posted for a few days as I've been busy with non-trading tasks and I found out I might have some unwanted downtime coming in the next while, doctor's orders.

To make matters worse, the broker I was testing out for this project cancelled my demo account after 30 days. I know some brokers do this to encourage you to sign up with a live account, but I don't like this tactic. I think it's a high pressure sales pitch. I won't be using them for when I do take this live.

So I'm going to start over, with a new broker, probably Tickmill or Tradeview. I'm going to revise the ruleset a little bit and hopefully confirm if this system can work for me in the new year (January). I considered switching to H4 to make it a bit faster-paced, but I don't want to be waking up in the middle of the night to check on trades. I need something that I can leave alone most of the time.

I wasn't completely idle though, the last few days. I have started working on another system that I'm calling Covenant. It's based on my thought processes that came out of Halo. The first version of it is Covenant Lite which only attempts to corral 2 principles out of the several that I've cobbled together. I will hopefully be posting charts and demo accounts for that system in the new year also.

Until then, have a great holiday season, and I will wish you safe and profitable trading in 2017.